Luis Henrique
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luis Henrique's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-38.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.2M-30.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.3M-32.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (1621 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.6M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1621 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.3M – €32.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; changed club; team strength up (+165 Elo); relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +97% (IQR -13% to +139%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1621 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 30 | 1621 | 47% | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1466 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RM | 33 | 2622 | 86% | 7 | 8 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 1447 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LW | 15 | 781 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 1490 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LW | 20 | 694 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 1407 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LW | 19 | 668 | 20% | 0 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 1386 | 1455 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 363 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 7 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1431 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 1605 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €16.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Christoph Baumgartner Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jorginho Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €22.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Denzel Dumfries Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €25.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Nahuel Molina Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Marouane Fellaini Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €23.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Barella Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €36.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2025 | Marseille | Inter | €22.8M | €25.0M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Botafogo | Marseille | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Marseille | Botafogo | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Sept 2020 | Três Passos | Marseille | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 24 Sept 2020 | Botafogo | Três Passos | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Três Passos | Botafogo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.