Raphael Onyedika
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raphael Onyedika's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-19.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.5M-22.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.9M-26.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (1688 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €12.7M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1688 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1357
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.9M – €26.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -19% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1688 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 23 | 1688 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1357 | 1589 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 25 | 1688 | 63% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1368 | 1552 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 21 | 1586 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1385 | 1541 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 26 | 1961 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1311 | 1491 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 6 | 540 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1228 | 1368 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 22 | 1805 | 91% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1267 | 1429 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 509 | 2 | 1 | 1669 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 359 | 0 | 1 | 1449 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Club Brugge KV | 7 | 310 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Nigeria | 5 | 291 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 11 | 940 | 1 | 1 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1392 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 7 | 568 | 0 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 294 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 593 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 429 | 0 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 313 | 1 | 0 | 1581 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Palhinha Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €18.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Taras Stepanenko Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €8.5M | €10.0M | flat |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €12.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Lucas Torreira Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Danilo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €24.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2022 | Midtjylland | Club Brugge | €9.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Fredericia | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | Midtjylland | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Ebedei | Midtjylland U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.