Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-11.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2052 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €11.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength down (-73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +23% (IQR -53% to +142%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 23 | 2052 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1316 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1295 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1415 | 1441 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 480 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | 1565 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ersin Destanoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mads Hermansen Superliga · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ruslan Neshcheret Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Matvey Safonov Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €14.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Altay Bayındır Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Kamil Grabara Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Nikolay Mihaylov Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €5.5M | €650k | fell |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €2.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | AZ U18 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AZ U17 | AZ U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Buiksloot Yth. | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.