Pau Víctor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pau Víctor's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-17.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.7M-22.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.6M-28.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (2269 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €17.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2269 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.6M – €28.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -4% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 2269 | 74% | 10 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 1317 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 21 | 307 | 9% | 2 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 1452 | 1792 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 13 | 758 | 3 | 1 | 1525 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 1299 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Bergwijn Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €16.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Vincent Aboubakar Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €10.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Fábio Silva Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Barış Alper Yılmaz Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €5.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Lukas Nmecha Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Christian Kouamé Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Barcelona | Braga | €12.0M | €4.0M |
| 24 Jul 2024 | Girona | Barcelona | €5.5M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Barça Atlètic | Girona | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Girona | Barça Atlètic | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | CE Sabadell | Girona | Free / loan | €300k |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Girona | CE Sabadell | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Girona FC B | Girona | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona U19 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Girona FC Youth | Girona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.