Nico Williams
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nico Williams's performance-implied value at EUR 8.9M-35.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.9M-47.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.1M-41.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1689 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €35.2M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1689 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.1M – €41.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -64% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1689 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LW | 25 | 1689 | 49% | 6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 1482 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LW | 29 | 1998 | 58% | 5 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 1514 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LW | 31 | 2282 | 67% | 5 | 14 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1481 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 36 | 2676 | 78% | 6 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 1520 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LW | 34 | 1324 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1522 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 2 | 55 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1584 | 1541 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 225 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 955 | 5 | 2 | 1541 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 150 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 447 | 3 | 5 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 528 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 245 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1791 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Justin Kluivert Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Sasa Kalajdzic Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Luca Waldschmidt Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| André Silva Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €16.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Patrick Wimmer Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Odsonne Édouard Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bilbao U19 | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bilbao U18 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | CA Osasuna Yout | Bilbao Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.