Jake O'Brien
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jake O'Brien's performance-implied value at EUR 19.4M-31.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.4M-23.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.0M-29.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3124 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.0M – €29.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -6% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | RB | 37 | 3124 | 91% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1603 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | RB | 20 | 1569 | 46% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1588 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2370 | 77% | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1475 | 1521 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrick Mitchell Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Maximilian Kilman Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €16.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Nathaniel Clyne Premier League · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €21.0M | rose |
| Dakonam Djené Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €15.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Matt Targett Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ben Chilwell Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Nathan Collins Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2024 | Lyon | Everton | €19.5M | €12.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Palace U21 | Lyon | €1.0M | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RWDM | Palace U21 | Free / loan | €700k |
| 26 Aug 2022 | Palace U21 | RWDM | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 May 2022 | Swindon Town | Palace U23 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 4 Jan 2022 | Palace U23 | Swindon Town | Free / loan | €25k |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Cork City | Palace U23 | Unknown | €25k |
| 31 May 2021 | Palace U23 | Cork City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2021 | Cork City | Palace U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Cork Academy | Cork City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.