Nathan Collins
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nathan Collins's performance-implied value at EUR 37.0M-56.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-43.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.3M-48.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2972 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1587
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.3M – €48.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -43% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 2972 | 87% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1587 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 2 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1574 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2650 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1572 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 26 | 1812 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1561 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 19 | 1670 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1524 | 1442 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrick Mitchell Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Matt Targett Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Marc Cucurella Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Axel Disasi Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Diego Carlos Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Harry Maguire Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €50.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Pau Torres Laliga · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2023 | Wolves | Brentford | €26.9M | €22.0M |
| 12 Jul 2022 | Burnley | Wolves | €24.3M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Stoke City | Burnley | €14.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stoke City U23 | Stoke City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Stoke U18 | Stoke City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Cherry Orchard FC | Stoke U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.