Guéla Doué
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guéla Doué's performance-implied value at EUR 5.4M-17.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-26.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.5M-26.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.8M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2064 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.5M – €26.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; role change CB -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -41% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 24 | 2064 | 67% | 2 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 1488 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2716 | 89% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1463 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 24 | 1228 | 40% | 0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1481 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1448 | 1562 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Ivory Coast | 5 | 374 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ivory Coast | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 304 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Botman Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Mattia Caldara Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Buongiorno Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Axel Disasi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Ligue 1 · 2015 | 25 | €13.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2024 | Stade Rennais | R. Strasbourg | €6.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.