Luc Marijnissen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luc Marijnissen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.5M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1389
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €780k – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +49% (IQR +5% to +112%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2520 | 93% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1389 | 1207 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Balliu Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Laurent Jans Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Souffian El Karouani Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €1.4M | €9.0M | rose |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €850k | €1.5M | rose |
| Pedro Álvaro Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Wout Faes Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 22 | €2.7M | €10.0M | rose |
| Buatu Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Aleksandar Vukotic Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 24 | €750k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Lierse SK | FCV Dender EH | €300k | €500k |
| 7 Jul 2023 | NAC Breda U21 | KSK Lierse Kem. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | NAC Breda U17 | NAC Breda U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NAC Breda Youth | NAC Breda U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.