Aleksey Batrakov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksey Batrakov's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-26.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.3M-38.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.6M-40.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.37x the positional average in the league (2494 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.1M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2494 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.83
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.6M – €40.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -9% to +38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 2494 | 92% | 13 | 10 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 1333 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2542 | 94% | 14 | 7 | 0.74 | 0.53 | 1291 | 1413 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CM | 5 | 362 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 1310 | 1416 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 8 | 536 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 7 | 465 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlašić Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €30.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Christian Eriksen Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €18.0M | €27.0M | rose |
| Marco van Ginkel Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Eduard Spertsyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jordy Clasie Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Kevin Strootman Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €13.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Adam Maher Eredivisie · 2013 | 20 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Sebastian Szymanski Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €14.0M | €19.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | Loko Moscow II | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak.Loko U16 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.