Rodrigo Muniz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Muniz's performance-implied value at EUR 10.1M-31.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.5M-28.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.2M-25.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (997 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.1M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 997 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1576
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.2M – €25.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +89% (IQR -20% to +109%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 997 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | ST | 21 | 997 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 1576 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | ST | 31 | 950 | 28% | 8 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 1550 | 1555 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Fulham FC | Premier League | ST | 26 | 1599 | 47% | 9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 1575 | 1524 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 4 | 315 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Elyounoussi Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Miguel Almirón Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Matheus Cunha Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €12.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Pedro Neto Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €28.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Adama Traoré Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Hélder Costa Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2023 | Middlesbrough | Fulham | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Fulham | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Flamengo | Fulham | €8.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Nov 2020 | Coritiba FC | Flamengo U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Oct 2020 | Flamengo U20 | Coritiba FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.