Omari Hutchinson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Omari Hutchinson's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-38.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.9M-41.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.7M-47.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1684 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1684 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €21.7M – €47.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; team strength up (+313 Elo); role change AM -> RW; relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR +16% to +91%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1684 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RW | 31 | 1684 | 49% | 1 | 7 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 1579 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Ipswich Town | Premier League | AM | 31 | 2593 | 76% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 1574 | 1322 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RM | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1844 | 1579 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 554 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €32.0M | €100M | rose |
| Marcus Thuram Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Sofiane Feghouli Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Tammy Abraham Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Pablo Sarabia Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Matheus Cunha Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | Ipswich | Nott'm Forest | €43.4M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Chelsea | Ipswich | €23.5M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Ipswich | Chelsea | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Chelsea | Ipswich | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Chelsea U21 | Chelsea | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Arsenal U21 | Chelsea U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.