Nico O'Reilly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nico O'Reilly's performance-implied value at EUR 27.2M-72.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 50.6M-105.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 43.4M-100.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €84.4M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2649 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €43.4M – €100M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 62 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -7% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | LB | 34 | 2649 | 77% | 5 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 1586 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | LB | 9 | 527 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.15 | 1539 | 1749 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 671 | 1 | 2 | 1640 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 204 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 6 | 477 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2015 | 20 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Alphonso Davies Bundesliga · 2020 | 20 | €45.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Premier League · 2019 | 21 | €80.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Alejandro Balde Laliga · 2023 | 20 | €50.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Éder Militão Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €60.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Sergio Reguilón Laliga · 2020 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Man City U21 | Man City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.