Mamadou Coulibaly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mamadou Coulibaly's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-11.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.6M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.6M-28.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1382 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €17.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1382 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.6M – €28.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +53% (IQR -1% to +83%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1382 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1382 | 45% | 3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 1472 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1331 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 5 | 115 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1374 | 1573 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 516 | 0 | 1 | 1652 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlin Röhl Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Maghnes Akliouche Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Marco van Ginkel Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| James Léa Siliki Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €5.0M | €4.8M | flat |
| David Da Costa Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €4.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Renato Sanches Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Naouirou Ahamada Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Bruno Guimarães Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Monaco U21 | Monaco | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Monaco U19 | Monaco U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AS Monaco U17 | Monaco U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Paris FC Yth. | AS Monaco U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.