Noah Nartey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Nartey's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-7.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.9M-24.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.1M-26.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1694 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1694 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1258
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.1M – €26.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+97 Elo); role change CM -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -30% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1694 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | AM | 17 | 1154 | 58% | 4 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 1258 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 11 | 540 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 1449 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CM | 19 | 1241 | 63% | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 1267 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CM | 4 | 94 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.23 | 1235 | 1417 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 6 | 389 | 0 | 0 | 1413 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 210 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 5 | 445 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 268 | 1 | 0 | 1380 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Hlynsson Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Arnór Sigurdsson Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €6.3M | €2.3M | fell |
| Dennis Praet Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 21 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Archie Brown Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Ilzat Akhmetov Premier Liga · 2020 | 22 | €6.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Orkun Kökçü Eredivisie · 2021 | 21 | €12.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Pape Gueye Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Arthur Vermeeren Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 19 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2026 | Bröndby IF | Lyon | €7.5M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bröndby IF U19 | Bröndby IF | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bröndby IF U17 | Bröndby IF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Aug 2021 | FCK Youth | Bröndby IF U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.