Roggerio Nyakossi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roggerio Nyakossi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-13.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1530 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1329
- Opponent strength
- 1382
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €13.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -43% to +172%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1530 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1530 | 57% | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1382 | 1329 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 8 | 711 | 1 | 0 | 1382 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomás Araújo Liga Portugal · 2023 | 21 | €5.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Ricardo Esgaio Liga Portugal · 2015 | 22 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lennart Czyborra Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €2.3M | fell |
| Diogo Queirós Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Andreaw Gravillon Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Trevoh Chalobah Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €3.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Christiaan Ravych Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Facundo Medina Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2025 | Marseille B | OH Leuven | €800k | €100k |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Servette FC | Marseille B | €2.0M | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Servette U18 | Servette FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Servette Yth. | Servette U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jul 2017 | Meyrin FC Yth. | Servette Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.