Álvaro Carreras
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Álvaro Carreras's performance-implied value at EUR 17.3M-50.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 38.0M-66.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.1M-62.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €57.1M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2334 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €29.1M – €62.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; changed club; team strength up (+113 Elo); league level up (+168 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -12% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | LB | 28 | 2334 | 68% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1466 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 32 | 2747 | 90% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1328 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 11 | 563 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 1385 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | LB | 13 | 473 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1459 | 1315 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 9 | 798 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1755 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 900 | 0 | 2 | 1645 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 3 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1407 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Preston North End | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jules Koundé Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €65.0M | flat |
| Abdou Diallo Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Bastoni Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €60.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Antonio Rüdiger Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €55.0M | €52.0M | flat |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €30.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Niklas Süle Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €38.0M | €48.0M | rose |
| Matthijs de Ligt Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €75.0M | €38.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2025 | Benfica | Real Madrid | €50.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Man Utd | Benfica | €14.3M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Benfica | Man Utd | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 16 Jan 2024 | Man Utd | Benfica | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Granada CF | Man Utd | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Man Utd | Granada CF | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Preston | Man Utd | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 26 Jul 2022 | Man Utd | Preston | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man Utd U21 | Man Utd | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Real Madrid U17 | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Deportivo Yth. | R.Madrid Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.