Bamba Dieng
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bamba Dieng's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.9M-24.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-16.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (1219 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1219 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.81
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.71
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €16.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+129 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -60% to +87%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1219 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1219 | 40% | 10 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 1469 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 18 | 524 | 17% | 3 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.85 | 1440 | 1291 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 16 | 543 | 18% | 4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 1488 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 15 | 748 | 22% | 3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 1453 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 10 | 186 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.43 | 1436 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 973 | 28% | 7 | 3 | 0.92 | 0.59 | 1404 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 5 | 127 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1387 | 1455 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Niasse Premier Liga · 2016 | 26 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Andreas Cornelius Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €7.5M | €3.8M | fell |
| Andrej Kramaric Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €7.5M | €27.0M | rose |
| Keita Baldé Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €16.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Andros Townsend Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Lorient | Without Club | Unknown | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Angers SCO | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | FC Lorient | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 27 Jan 2023 | Marseille | FC Lorient | €7.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Diambars FC | Marseille | €400k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Marseille B | Diambars FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Diambars FC | Marseille B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.