Tom Bischof
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom Bischof's performance-implied value at EUR 14.3M-37.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.6M-57.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.3M-72.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €45.9M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1294 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1443
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.3M – €72.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; changed club; team strength up (+456 Elo); role change CM -> LB; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -34% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1294 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 26 | 1294 | 42% | 3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 1443 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 2569 | 84% | 5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 1491 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 13 | 169 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 1553 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 11 | 310 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1507 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1368 | 1479 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 359 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 631 | 1 | 1 | 1528 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piero Hincapié Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Niklas Süle Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €38.0M | €48.0M | rose |
| Juan Bernat Bundesliga · 2016 | 23 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Abdou Diallo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| David Alaba Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €50.0M | €52.0M | flat |
| Alphonso Davies Bundesliga · 2021 | 21 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Sergiño Dest Laliga · 2021 | 21 | €30.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Fran García Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jun 2025 | Hoffenheim | Bayern Munich | €300k | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hoffenheim Yth. | Hoffenheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Amorbach Jgd. | Hoffenheim Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.