Arnau Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arnau Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-20.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-11.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-18.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €5.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2678 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €18.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -31% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2678 | 78% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1500 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 32 | 2627 | 77% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1503 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 21 | 1242 | 36% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1456 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 33 | 2736 | 80% | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1522 | 1458 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 5 | 415 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 120 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 5 | 325 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Joe Scally Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Javi López Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jesús Areso Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Casale Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €7.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Arthur Theate Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Kévin Théophile-Catherine Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2021 | Girona FC B | Girona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Girona U19 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona FC U18 | Girona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Girona FC Youth | Girona FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hospitalet Yth. | Girona FC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça Youth | Hospitalet Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.