Mike Penders
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mike Penders's performance-implied value at EUR 7.8M-26.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.9M-36.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.8M-42.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €27.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.8M – €42.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 60 pts; changed club; league level up (+90 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -41% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1466 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 11 | 990 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1335 | 1535 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Mamardashvili Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Thomas Strakosha Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Bartłomiej Drągowski Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Filip Jørgensen Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Florian Müller Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Matvey Safonov Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €9.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Marcin Bulka Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma Serie A · 2017 | 18 | €25.0M | €55.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | R. Strasbourg | Chelsea | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 28 Jul 2025 | Chelsea | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jun 2025 | Genk | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | Genk | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Genk | Chelsea | €20.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Jong Genk | Genk | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | KRC Genk U18 | Jong Genk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KRC Genk Youth | KRC Genk U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.