Mateo Joseph
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateo Joseph's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-17.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1704 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1704 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €7.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +58% (IQR +9% to +113%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1704 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | ST | 29 | 1704 | 50% | 2 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.42 | 1488 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | ST | 3 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1640 | 1418 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Mbakogu Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €2.6M | €2.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Colombo Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Robin Quaison Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €3.5M | €10.5M | rose |
| Lameck Banda Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Benedict Hollerbach Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Marvin Pieringer Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ismail Jakobs Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €2.7M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | RCD Mallorca | Leeds | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Leeds | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Leeds U21 | Leeds | Unknown | €900k |
| 4 Jan 2022 | Espanyol U19 | Leeds United U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Espanyol U18 | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.