Marc Pubill
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Pubill's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-20.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.9M-50.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.8M-55.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €41.3M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1382 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1427
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.8M – €55.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -55% to -12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1382 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1382 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1427 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | UD Almería | Laliga | RB | 23 | 1890 | 55% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 1501 | 1327 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Levante UD | Laliga | RB | 11 | 501 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1510 | 1444 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 11 | 823 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Maatsen Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Renan Lodi Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Jon Pacheco Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Fikayo Tomori Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €28.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €31.5M | €9.0M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Loïc Badé Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | UD Almería | Atlético | €16.0M | €4.0M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Levante | UD Almería | €7.8M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atl. Levante | Levante | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Levante U19 | Atl. Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | G. Manresa U19 | Levante U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | G.Manresa Yth. | G. Manresa U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Espanyol Youth | G.Manresa Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | CE Manresa Yout | Espanyol Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.