Valentín Barco
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valentín Barco's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-27.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.0M-54.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.1M-49.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2171 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €44.7M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2171 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1463
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.1M – €49.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +11% (IQR -10% to +120%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 2171 | 71% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 1463 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 14 | 1166 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1448 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 7 | 286 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1495 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | LB | 6 | 308 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1673 | 1520 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khéphren Thuram Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Oihan Sancet Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €30.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €22.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Mateo Kovacic Serie A · 2015 | 21 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Maxime Lopez Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Lucas Tousart Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Christoph Baumgartner Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €22.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Rayan Cherki Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €25.0M | €90.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Brighton | R. Strasbourg | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Brighton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Brighton | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Sevilla FC | Brighton | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Brighton | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Boca Juniors | Brighton | €9.2M | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Boca Juniors II | Boca Juniors | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | CABJ JV | CABJ U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.