Rayan Cherki
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rayan Cherki's performance-implied value at EUR 46.8M-92.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 55.7M-126.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 52.2M-81.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1786 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €97.2M vs market €90.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1786 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.81
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1584
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €52.2M – €81.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+238 Elo); league level up (+149 Elo); role change RW -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -39% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1786 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 33 | 1786 | 52% | 4 | 12 | 0.81 | 0.46 | 1584 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 30 | 2048 | 67% | 8 | 11 | 0.83 | 0.48 | 1443 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 33 | 1718 | 56% | 1 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 1485 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 34 | 1871 | 55% | 4 | 6 | 0.48 | 0.36 | 1432 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 16 | 432 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 1454 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 27 | 679 | 20% | 1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 1399 | 1587 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 6 | 139 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1535 | 1566 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 394 | 3 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 352 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 12 | 915 | 4 | 8 | 1526 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 287 | 2 | 3 | 1480 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1766 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece James Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €60.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Kai Havertz Premier League · 2021 | 22 | €70.0M | €55.0M | fell |
| James Rodríguez Laliga · 2015 | 24 | €80.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Mario Götze Bundesliga · 2013 | 21 | €45.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Scott McTominay Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Mason Mount Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €75.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Oscar Premier League · 2015 | 24 | €38.0M | €22.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | Lyon | Man City | €36.5M | €45.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | €8.0M |
| 7 Jul 2019 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | ASSP Jugend | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.