Santiago Castro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Castro's performance-implied value at EUR 11.2M-42.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.7M-44.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.2M-51.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (2365 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €33.0M vs market €32.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2365 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.2M – €51.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -28% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 35 | 2365 | 69% | 7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 1491 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 36 | 2302 | 67% | 8 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 1475 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 8 | 237 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.56 | 1520 | 1579 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 12 | 824 | 2 | 1 | 1540 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1711 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 100 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 7 | 336 | 0 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 182 | 2 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Saint-Maximin Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Alexander Isak Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €30.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Elye Wahi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Joelinton Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jonathan David Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €45.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Federico Bernardeschi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Julian Draxler Bundesliga · 2014 | 21 | €30.0M | €24.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2024 | Vélez Sarsfield | Bologna | €13.2M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vélez II | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Vélez U20 | Vélez II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Vélez JV | Vélez U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.