Nicolás Marichal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolás Marichal's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-8.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-8.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1906 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 307% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -41% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 1906 | 71% | 5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 1347 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1606 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1293 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1396 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1345 | 1374 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 992 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1313 | 1325 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 10 | 751 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 8 | 642 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 615 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riechedly Bazoer Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Rúben Liga Portugal · 2015 | 25 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jordan Torunarigha Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| João Afonso Liga Portugal · 2015 | 25 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Serdar Aziz Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Christian Luyindama Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Roberto Fernández Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2022 | Nacional | Dynamo Moscow | €4.2M | €1.0M |
| 5 Jan 2021 | Nacional U19 | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.