Mateo Pellegrino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateo Pellegrino's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-13.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.1M-23.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-25.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2994 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2994 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €25.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 66 pts; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -28% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | ST | 37 | 2994 | 88% | 9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.48 | 1492 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | ST | 13 | 739 | 22% | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.86 | 1559 | 1342 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 170 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Simon Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Gaëtan Laborde Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Lucca Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Borja Mayoral Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Hugo Duro Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Jonas Wind Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Andrea Pinamonti Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Diego López Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Vélez Sarsfield | Parma | €1.6M | €3.5M |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Platense | Vélez Sarsfield | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Vélez Sarsfield | Platense | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Estudiantes LP | Vélez Sarsfield | Free / loan | €250k |
| 27 Jun 2022 | Vélez Sarsfield | Estudiantes LP | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vélez II | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vélez U20 | Vélez II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vélez JV | Vélez U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Inter Youth | Vélez JV | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Valencia CF You | Inter Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.