Bruno Ogbus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bruno Ogbus's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-32.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.1M-32.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €19.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 37% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1175 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 37%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.1M – €32.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -5% to +117%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1175 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 18 | 1175 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1466 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RB | 2 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1678 | 1505 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 5 | 298 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 70 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soungoutou Magassa Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €8.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Mario Gila Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €13.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Chadi Riad Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Sinaly Diomandé Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2018 | 19 | €10.0M | €49.5M | rose |
| Morato Liga Portugal · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Caleb Okoli Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jan 2022 | GC Zürich U18 | SC Freiburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | GC Zürich U16 | GC Zürich U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | GC Zürich Jgd. | GC Zürich U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.