Kirill Glebov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kirill Glebov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-11.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.9M-21.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-21.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1605 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €14.6M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1605 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €21.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +57% (IQR -50% to +107%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1605 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 22 | 1605 | 59% | 5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 1331 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 15 | 439 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 1278 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 10 | 217 | 8% | 2 | 1 | 1.24 | 0.46 | 1295 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 6 | 106 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1326 | 1447 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 491 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 8 | 346 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Chakvetadze Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 20 | €9.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Shapi Suleymanov Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fábio Silva Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Konstantin Tyukavin Premier Liga · 2022 | 20 | €7.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Ibrahim Osman Superliga · 2024 | 20 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Calvin Stengs Eredivisie · 2019 | 21 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Manfred Ugalde Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | CSKA Moscow II | CSKA Moscow | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak.ZSKA U16 | CSKA U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Mar 2020 | Signal | Ak.ZSKA U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.