Viktor Melekhin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Viktor Melekhin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-5.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2382 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1350
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €5.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 57 pts; relative output up 141% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -49% to +40%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2382 | 88% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1350 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 845 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1311 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1548 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1335 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 1804 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1318 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1297 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1347 | 1283 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 11 | 768 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 4 | 241 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 9 | 628 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanja Drkusic Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Maksim Nenakhov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Furkan Bayır Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Roman Evgenjev Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Pedro Malheiro Liga Portugal · 2023 | 22 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Yukhym Konoplya Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Calvin Verdonk Eredivisie · 2020 | 23 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Matt Miazga Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2021 | Rostov II | Rostov | Unknown | €25k |
| 22 Feb 2021 | Ak. Rodina U17 | Rostov II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Vityaz Youth | Ak. Rodina U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.