Mateus Fernandes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateus Fernandes's performance-implied value at EUR 15.9M-45.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 39.6M-71.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 33.4M-68.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (3026 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €55.4M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3026 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1613
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €33.4M – €68.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+241 Elo); role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR +15% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | CM | 36 | 3026 | 88% | 3 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 1613 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | AM | 36 | 2922 | 85% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 1595 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 1 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1317 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 2242 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1383 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1316 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 3 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1249 | 1669 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Maddison Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €44.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €49.5M | €80.0M | rose |
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €38.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Wilfred Ndidi Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €25.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Rúben Neves Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Jacob Ramsey Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €42.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Morgan Gibbs-White Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €40.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2025 | Southampton | West Ham | €44.0M | €15.0M |
| 20 Aug 2024 | Sporting | Southampton | €15.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Estoril | Sporting | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Sporting | Estoril | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olhanense CJ | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.