Morgan Gibbs-White
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Morgan Gibbs-White's performance-implied value at EUR 52.7M-88.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 33.2M-79.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 37.7M-81.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.45x the positional average in the league (3113 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €65.1M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3113 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1599
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €37.7M – €81.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+63 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -44% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | AM | 37 | 3113 | 91% | 15 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 1599 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | AM | 34 | 2824 | 83% | 7 | 10 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 1569 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | AM | 37 | 3162 | 92% | 5 | 10 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 1589 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | AM | 35 | 2979 | 87% | 5 | 8 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 1565 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1413 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 2 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1659 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 11 | 410 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 1545 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 7 | 126 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1544 | 1613 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 26 | 650 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1501 | 1551 | 1.22 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 14 | 937 | 3 | 3 | 1546 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 318 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 345 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 208 | 1 | 0 | 1270 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Bruno Guimarães Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €70.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Bruno Fernandes Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €90.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €90.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Granit Xhaka Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €40.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Paul Pogba Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €100M | €60.0M | fell |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €55.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2022 | Wolves | Nott'm Forest | €29.5M | €11.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Sheff Utd | Wolves | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Wolves | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 6 Jan 2021 | Swansea | Wolves | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Wolves | Swansea | Free / loan | €7.2M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Wolves U18 | Wolves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Wolves Yth. | Wolves U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.