Antoine Mendy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antoine Mendy's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-17.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-21.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2098 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €21.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-164 Elo); relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR -7% to +114%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2098 | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1481 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 18 | 818 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1430 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 10 | 415 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1530 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 11 | 519 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1407 | 1519 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 7 | 413 | 0 | 1 | 1535 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 3 | 254 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Serie A · 2019 | 21 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Koni De Winter Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Lilian Brassier Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Josh Doig Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Faitout Maouassa Ligue 1 · 2019 | 21 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Caleb Okoli Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Pol Lirola Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €7.5M | €9.5M | rose |
| John Brooks Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €4.5M | €14.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | OGC Nice B | Nice | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | OGC Nice U17 | OGC Nice B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Air Bel Jgd. | OGC Nice U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Burel FC Jgd. | SC Air Bel Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.