Yaimar Medina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yaimar Medina's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-8.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1136 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €8.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -50% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1136 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 21 | 1136 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1339 | 1471 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 11 | 586 | 1 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KRC Genk | 6 | 396 | 0 | 2 | 1332 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gastón Ávila Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Salih Dursun Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €3.5M | €650k | fell |
| Nikolay Rasskazov Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Igor Diveev Premier Liga · 2019 | 20 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Fabiano Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Jérémy Gélin Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €4.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sieben Dewaele Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 21 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Owen Wijndal Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | Independiente | Genk | €4.8M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | IDV U20 | Independiente | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Ind. Jrs. | IDV U20 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Mar 2022 | IDV U20 | Ind. Jrs. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Independiente B | IDV U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | IDV U20 | Independiente B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.