Joel Roca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joel Roca's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-14.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.1M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.0M-16.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (1468 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €7.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 36% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1468 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 36%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.0M – €16.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +63% (IQR -29% to +169%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1468 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | LW | 32 | 1468 | 43% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 1485 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | LW | 5 | 80 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1474 | 1458 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CD Mirandés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Tomás Bundesliga · 2022 | 20 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Colombo Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| El Bilal Touré Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €6.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Emanuel Vignato Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vaclav Kadlec Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Pépé Ligue 1 · 2017 | 22 | €3.0M | €65.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | CD Mirandés | Girona | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 Aug 2024 | Girona | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Girona FC B | Girona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Girona FC U18 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona FC Youth | Girona FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça Youth | Girona FC Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.