Barış Kalaycı
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Barış Kalaycı's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1309 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €2.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 38% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1309 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 38%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €5.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -25% to +120%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1309 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | LW | 29 | 1309 | 43% | 1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 1268 | 1169 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joelson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mustapha Bundu Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Yoann Cathline Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Franco Tongya Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Mykola Kukharevych Premier Liga · 2021 | 20 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Isak Jensen Superliga · 2024 | 21 | €1.7M | €5.0M | rose |
| Pape Habib Guèye Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Ronald Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | U. Berlin U19 | Karagümrük | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | U. Berlin U17 | U. Berlin U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | U. Berlin Yth. | U. Berlin U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | BFC Dynamo Yth. | U. Berlin Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.