Keisuke Goto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Keisuke Goto's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-14.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-22.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.3M-25.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2081 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.9M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 40% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2081 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.67
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1392
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 40%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.3M – €25.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -24% to +124%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 28 | 2081 | 77% | 10 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 1392 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 6 | 152 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 1361 | 1476 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 10 | 805 | 1 | 2 | 1476 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1500 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Piazón Eredivisie · 2014 | 20 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Victor Osimhen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €13.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Amine Gouiri Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Sam Lammers Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Paul-Georges Ntep Ligue 1 · 2015 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Matheus Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 22 | €3.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Terem Moffi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Zelimkhan Bakaev Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | Freiburg | €10.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sint-Truiden | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 7 Aug 2025 | RSC Anderlecht | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | RSCA Futures | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Júbilo Iwata | RSCA Futures | €1.1M | €900k |
| 31 Dec 2024 | RSCA Futures | Júbilo Iwata | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Júbilo Iwata | RSCA Futures | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Júbilo U18 | Júbilo Iwata | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2021 | Júbilo Jg | Júbilo U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.