Franculino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Franculino's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-21.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.9M-35.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.6M-38.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1220 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.3M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1220 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.65
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1227
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.6M – €38.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -17% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1220 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 17 | 1220 | 62% | 16 | 3 | 1.40 | 0.65 | 1227 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 18 | 1098 | 55% | 7 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 1303 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 17 | 654 | 33% | 6 | 5 | 1.51 | 0.78 | 1254 | 1449 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 441 | 1 | 0 | 1308 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 314 | 3 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 85 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 415 | 3 | 3 | 1370 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 218 | 1 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 20 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 219 | 5 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 104 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jota Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 24 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Cody Gakpo Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Simon Adingra Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Noa Lang Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €22.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Amoura Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Odsonne Édouard Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 22 | €13.5M | €17.0M | rose |
| Viktor Tsygankov Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €25.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Liel Abada Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 21 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica U23 | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.