Gonzalo García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonzalo García's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.0M-42.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.1M-50.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (952 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €34.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 952 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.66
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.1M – €50.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +25% (IQR -27% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 952 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 30 | 952 | 28% | 6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.32 | 1474 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 3 | 53 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.70 | 0.32 | 1464 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | RW | 2 | 17 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1380 | 1867 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 5 | 173 | 0 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 1751 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Morata Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jamie Gittens Bundesliga · 2024 | 20 | €28.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Moussa Diaby Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €12.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Lucas Moura Ligue 1 · 2013 | 21 | €35.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Mohamed Salah Premier League · 2014 | 22 | €13.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Juan Iturbe Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Eddie Nketiah Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jun 2025 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RCD Mallorca Yo | R.Madrid Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R.Madrid Yth. | RCD Mallorca Yo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.