Raúl Asencio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raúl Asencio's performance-implied value at EUR 16.5M-50.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.8M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.0M-35.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.9M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1708 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.0M – €35.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 82% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -22% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1708 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1708 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1475 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1673 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1502 | 1764 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 559 | 0 | 1 | 1581 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 1762 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 10 | 748 | 0 | 1 | 1740 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serge Aurier Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €15.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Thilo Kehrer Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nordi Mukiele Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Ben Davies Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Layvin Kurzawa Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €22.0M | €17.5M | fell |
| Ian Maatsen Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Fábio Coentrão Laliga · 2013 | 25 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Sergiño Dest Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Madrid C | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid U19 | RSC Inter FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Las Palmas Yth. | R.Madrid Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.