Mikel Gogorza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikel Gogorza's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-10.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-9.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-9.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (546 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 37.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €3.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 46% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 546 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1194
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 46%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €9.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +109% (IQR -46% to +385%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 546 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LW | 14 | 546 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 1194 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LW | 11 | 402 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.30 | 1259 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RM | 1 | 11 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1382 | 1449 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 248 | 1 | 1 | 1292 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 1523 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 138 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 7 | 275 | 0 | 1 | 1546 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 79 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssouph Badji Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 20 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Odsonne Édouard Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 20 | €1.5M | €13.5M | rose |
| Fernando Premier Liga · 2019 | 20 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Steven Bergwijn Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €2.5M | €35.0M | rose |
| Newerton Premier Liga · 2024 | 19 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Lazar Randjelovic Super League 1 · 2020 | 23 | €1.6M | €2.5M | rose |
| Dimitrios Limnios Super League 1 · 2019 | 21 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Charles De Ketelaere Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 19 | €7.6M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Mar 2021 | FCK Youth | FCM Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Aug 2018 | Lyngby BK Youth | FCK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.