Thierno Barry
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thierno Barry's performance-implied value at EUR 21.6M-49.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.6M-43.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.2M-47.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1915 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €36.6M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1915 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.2M – €47.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+125 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +33% (IQR -42% to +95%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 38 | 1915 | 56% | 8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 1603 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2325 | 68% | 11 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 1509 | 1597 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €20.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| João Pedro Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €45.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Joelinton Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €17.0M | €42.0M | rose |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2016 | 23 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Maxi Gómez Laliga · 2020 | 24 | €32.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Odsonne Édouard Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Villarreal | Everton | €30.0M | €20.0M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Basel | Villarreal | €20.0M | €4.0M |
| 3 Jul 2023 | SK Beveren | Basel | €3.0M | €1.3M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | FC Sochaux B | SK Beveren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SC Toulon U19 | FC Sochaux B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | ASSP U17 | SC Toulon U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | ASSP Jugend | ASSP U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AS Montchat Jgd | ASSP Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.