Mario Martín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Martín's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-17.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.1M-18.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.0M-21.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (2135 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.7M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2135 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1446
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.0M – €21.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+230 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR +18% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | DM | 35 | 2135 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1495 | 1446 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | DM | 30 | 1750 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1499 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | DM | 2 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1489 | 1867 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 2 | 103 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Aimar Oroz Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €9.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Mattéo Guendouzi Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Samú Costa Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Ansgar Knauff Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Josha Vagnoman Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Real Madrid | Getafe | €3.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Getafe | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 29 Jul 2025 | Real Madrid | Getafe | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2025 | Real Valladolid | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Real Madrid | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.