Bastien Meupiyou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bastien Meupiyou's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-11.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-16.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €8.1M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 36% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2619 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1277
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 36%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €16.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -8% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2619 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1326 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1546 | 1309 | 0.87 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rein Van Helden Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Loïc Badé Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin Ligue 1 · 2015 | 20 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Alexander Scholz Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Domingos Duarte Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Filip Uremovic Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Neraysho Kasanwirjo Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2025 | Wolves U21 | Alverca | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 29 Aug 2024 | FC Nantes | Wolves U21 | €5.0M | €800k |
| 1 Aug 2023 | FC Nantes B | FC Nantes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Dec 2022 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Nantes Yth. | FC Nantes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.