Rômulo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rômulo's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-27.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.5M-43.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.5M-44.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2209 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €33.0M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2209 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.5M – €44.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+367 Elo); league level up (+226 Elo); relative output down 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -54% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 2209 | 72% | 9 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 1484 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 29 | 2497 | 77% | 13 | 9 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 1300 | 1201 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Joelinton Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Stevan Jovetić Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Terem Moffi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Suso Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €35.0M | €17.5M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €21.5M | €12.0M | fell |
| Tammy Abraham Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2025 | Göztepe | Leipzig | €20.0M | €11.0M |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Athletico-PR | Göztepe | €5.3M | €3.7M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Göztepe | Athletico-PR | Free / loan | €3.7M |
| 7 Feb 2024 | Athletico-PR | Göztepe | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Athletico U20 | Athletico-PR | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Maringá-PR U20 | Athletico U20 | €1.2M | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Athletico U20 | Maringá-PR U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Oct 2018 | Maringá-PR U20 | Athletico U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.