Wesley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wesley's performance-implied value at EUR 8.3M-28.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 30.4M-53.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.5M-57.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2458 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €45.1M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2458 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.5M – €57.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -14% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LM | 30 | 2458 | 72% | 5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1498 | 1638 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 541 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanguy Ndombélé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €25.0M | €52.0M | rose |
| Manuel Ugarte Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €45.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Oscar Premier League · 2013 | 22 | €32.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Lucas Paquetá Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Javier Pastore Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €27.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2015 | 23 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2025 | Flamengo | Roma | €25.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Tubarão-SC U20 | Flamengo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.