Ngal'ayel Mukau
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ngal'ayel Mukau's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-17.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.7M-22.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-27.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (1540 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1540 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.4M – €27.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +23% (IQR -19% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1540 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 1540 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1489 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | DM | 22 | 1193 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1489 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 16 | 1154 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1401 | 1367 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 9 | 93 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1245 | 1302 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 11 | 713 | 1 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 4 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 3 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 567 | 2 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 3 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | KV Mechelen | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1497 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amadou Onana Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Stefano Sturaro Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Timothy Weah Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €14.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Maxime Lopez Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Edoardo Bove Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Andy Diouf Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| David Da Costa Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2024 | KV Mechelen | Lille | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Jong KVM | KV Mechelen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KV Mechelen U18 | KV Mechelen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | KV Mechelen Yth | KV Mechelen U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Zulte W. Youth | KV Mechelen Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Unknown | Zulte W. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | KV Mechelen Yth | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.