Nobel Mendy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nobel Mendy's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-15.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.4M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-25.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.1M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +90% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1804 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €25.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +63% (IQR -13% to +119%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 24 | 1804 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1496 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 2 | 107 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1635 | 1555 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guéla Doué Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Kike Salas Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Ryan Sessegnon Bundesliga · 2021 | 21 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Jorge Herrando Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jonjoe Kenny Premier League · 2018 | 21 | €5.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Nico Schlotterbeck Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €7.5M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jorge Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | €2.4M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 20 Aug 2025 | Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Paris FC | Betis Deportivo | €900k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Betis Deportivo | Paris FC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Paris FC | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Paris FC B | Paris FC | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Paris FC U19 | Paris FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Mantois 78 U17 | Paris FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.