Franco Mastantuono
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Franco Mastantuono's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-37.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 34.3M-71.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.5M-80.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.33x the positional average in the league (1037 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €65.7M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1037 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1441
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.5M – €80.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +21% (IQR -3% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1037 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | RW | 23 | 1037 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1441 | 1745 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 293 | 1 | 1 | 1536 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 143 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1778 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrygo Laliga · 2020 | 19 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Kingsley Coman Bundesliga · 2017 | 21 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Adnan Januzaj Premier League · 2015 | 20 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Hugo Ekitiké Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €20.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Luciano Vietto Laliga · 2016 | 23 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| M'Baye Niang Serie A · 2013 | 19 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2025 | River Plate | Real Madrid | €45.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | River Plate U20 | River Plate | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.